06 Nov, 2017

It’s been one hell of a weekend in Riyadh. Purges of senior figures including a powerful Al-Saud family member, a missile attack by Iranian-backed fighters in Yemen, and the Saudi-allied Lebanese prime minister announcing his resignation in the Saudi capital. The dramatic arrests of senior officials and businessmen in Saudi Arabia add up to one thing: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) sees his assumption of total control as inseparable from the popular and practical requirement that

01 Jun, 2017

Hizbollah are defiant. They know that the regular Lebanese armed forces are weak and that most Lebanese, mindful of the horror show next door in Syria, think that the Shia militia is crucial to their national security. However Hizbollah is under increasing US financial pressure, while US and allied forces could weaken Hizbollah’s position in Syria. At the same time Israel recently targeted its Damascus airport supply line and could restart the confrontation with Hizbollah in south Lebanon.

04 Mar, 2019

Prime Minister Harold Wilson at the Adelphi Hotel, Liverpool on the night of his re-election, March 1966 My article on the UK’s return ‘East of Suez’ and the contrast between a Brexit-focused May Government and the approach to the Gulf of the Labour Government a half century ago, has just been published on the blog page of University of Kingston History Department. Opening paragraphs and link below:   ‘Fifty years ago the British Government was struggling with austerity at home and exploring

14 Aug, 2018

There is much social media speculation that Kuwait has agreed to lease its strategic northern islands to China for 99 years. Although strongly denied by the Kuwait Government and dismissed by Kuwaiti[1] and other Gulf analysts,  some expert Kuwaiti opinion believes there is substance to it. There is certainly no doubt that Kuwait is seeking Beijing’s financial and security assistance. Nervousness about Iraq has been compounded by weeks of unrest in neighbouring southern cities and the Iraqi

09 Mar, 2018

Kuwait’s succession struggle is becoming clearer, with a son of a serving emir having a good chance of taking over the running of the country for the first time in over a century. Sheikh Nasser Sabah Al Ahmad Al-Sabah is though currently fourth in the formal political hierarchy and needs to cultivate the national assembly and to ensure he has public support. The future of Kuwait, and its need for substantial economic change, depends on a smooth succession from the rule of Emir Sabah Al-Ahmad,

06 Mar, 2018

No 10 says that tomorrow's visit by the Saudi crown prince could assist our mutual fight against terrorism and contribute to relieving suffering in Yemen. It would be foolish to cold shoulder Mohammed bin Salman, a young man largely in control in an important Middle Eastern country. However, a year ago the UK Cabinet was divided over unrestricted defence sales to Saudi Arabia, and the British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson was saying that both Saudi Arabia and Iran were dangerously stirring the

02 Jan, 2018

The de facto Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) has amassed almost unlimited power over the Kingdom’s affairs. A young man in a hurry to achieve both domestic and regional objectives, he has had few constraints, whether at home or from the White House. This has resulted in the Saudi strategic and political miscalculation of a nearly three year long war in Yemen. MbS may yet find a way to withdraw from that conflict, but is unlikely to do so with any concrete achievements in terms of the Saudi

14 Dec, 2017

According to a report in today’s Al-Rai, the Arabic language Kuwaiti newspaper, Kuwait might open a “safara”  i.e. an embassy in the West Bank town of Ramallah. Embassies are placed in capitals. The Palestinian capital, Arab states have been very publicly re-asserting of late, is in Jerusalem. Sheikh Ahmed Al-Nasser, a senior Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry official whose photo (see above) accompanies the story ("Kuwaiti embassy in Ramallah?" by Khalid Al-Shuraqawi), reportedly said that Kuwait has

11 Dec, 2017

How much has really been changed by Trump’s statement on Jerusalem? His announcement is, on paper, a huge legal concession freely pocketed by Israel. However, the US is in effect saying that west Jerusalem is where the Israeli government is, and therefore that’s where the US’ diplomatic focus will be in official, not just de facto, terms. This probably means that somewhere in west Jerusalem a new US embassy building will be constructed in place of the existing US consulate general on that side